Tools
Every tool I’ve built, and what I build next.
Games, boards and calculators for the news, each one tied to the betting markets. Use them, then tell me what to build next.
The tools
- Call the MidtermsBuild your own Congress: move the country, call every race, see who takes the House and Senate.Call the races
- Build Israel’s next governmentPick the parties and fill the Knesset to 61. See which governments can really work.Build a government
- Build Spain’s next governmentPick the parties and fill the Congress of Deputies to 176. See who can govern.Build a government
- The Regime BoardEvery leader of the Islamic Republic on one chart: who was taken out, when, and who still holds a chair.See the board
- The Intel RoomThe war and the news on one live globe: the evidence, the last 24 hours, what is hot right now.Enter the room
- Beat the MarketsEvery political betting market in one place. Make your call, then see if you read it better than the money.Take on the markets
- WargamesThe wars on live maps: replay how they got here, then play them forward with an expert war room.Run the war
- Your Liberty ScoreVote on the questions Congress voted on and get your own grade on the same scale.Get your grade
What should I build next?
In order of votes. Tap I want this on the ones you’d use, talk about any of them, or suggest your own at the bottom. I pick the next build from the top of this list.
The list, in order of votes
When Does the Regime Fall?
Put your pin on the day the Islamic Republic ends, then see how your call stacks up against the money and everyone here.
The markets behind it
- Who heads the Islamic Republic at the end of 2026?86% Mojtaba Khamenei4.2% No Head of State$40.6M traded · Polymarket · this hour
- Will the Islamic Republic fall before 2027?5.5%$28.8M traded · Polymarket · this hour
How it would workSmall build
What you’d do
Drag a pin along a timeline from today to 2030 for when the Islamic Republic falls, then pick who leads Iran the day after. The betting ladder for each date sits beside your pin, with where every other reader put theirs.
The call it will carry
When will the Islamic Republic fall?
- Before the end of 2026
- During 2027
- 2028 to 2030
- After 2030
- It will not fall
Voting on this one opens shortly.
The Escalation Ladder
Every rung between a ceasefire and a full war with the Islamic Republic. You decide how high it climbs.
The markets behind it
- Will the US invade Iran before 2027?18%$76.1M traded · Polymarket · this hour
- Does the US take the regime’s enriched uranium by December 31?3.3% December 31$29.7M traded · Polymarket · this hour
How it would workMedium build
What you’d do
Stack the rungs (the airspace closed, more strikes, the uranium seized, a nuclear deal, ground troops, a declared war) and set your odds for each. The market odds light up beside yours, and you see where everyone here thinks it stops.
The call it will carry
How does the war with the Islamic Republic end?
- The regime falls
- A deal with the regime
- A frozen ceasefire
- A long war
Voting on this one opens shortly.
Open the Strait
Hormuz, Kharg Island, the blockade: guess when ships move normally again, and what it does to the price of oil.
The markets behind it
- Kharg Island out of the regime’s hands by December 31?8.5% December 31$77.1M traded · Polymarket · this hour
- Does the US announce the end of the blockade by March 31?64% March 31$44.7M traded · Polymarket · this hour
How it would workMedium build
What you’d do
Pick a month for each: the blockade ends, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is normal, Kharg Island leaves the regime’s hands, oil hits a record. The weekly ship count from the markets runs along the top, so you watch your guess play out.
The call it will carry
When does traffic through the Strait of Hormuz go back to normal?
- Before 2027
- During 2027
- 2028
- Later than 2028
Voting on this one opens shortly.
The 2028 Draft
Draft your 2028 tickets like a fantasy team, then see who the bettors already favor.
The markets behind it
- Who is the Democratic nominee in 2028?17% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16% Gavin Newsom$1.30B traded · Polymarket · this hour
- Who wins the 2028 presidential election?18% JD Vance12% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez$722.8M traded · Polymarket · this hour
How it would workMedium build
What you’d do
Pick a Democratic and a Republican nominee and a running mate for each, then call the winner. You get a picture to post, and your picks sit beside the market and every other reader’s.
The call it will carry
Who wins the White House in 2028?
- J.D. Vance
- Marco Rubio
- Gavin Newsom
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Someone else
Voting on this one opens shortly.
Leaders Out
Ten world leaders, one calendar: pick the five who lose power first.
The markets behind it
- Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?32% June 30, 2027$124.9M traded · Polymarket · this hour
- Putin out by June 30, 2027?8.5% June 30, 2027$31M traded · Polymarket · this hour
How it would workSmall build
What you’d do
Pick five of ten leaders (Netanyahu, Putin, Xi, Mojtaba Khamenei, Maduro, Merz, Macron, Zelenskyy, Mohammed bin Salman, Trump) and give each a month. Every one you get right is a point, on a board against the bettors.
The call it will carry
Who loses power first?
- Benjamin Netanyahu
- Vladimir Putin
- Mojtaba Khamenei
- Nicolás Maduro
- Xi Jinping
Voting on this one opens shortly.
Dictator Bracket
The Islamic Republic, Cuba, Venezuela, Russia, China: which regime falls first? Fill in the bracket.
The markets behind it
- Who leads Venezuela at the end of 2026?84% Nicolás Maduro14% Delcy Rodríguez$99.2M traded · Polymarket · this hour
- Will the Islamic Republic fall before 2027?5.5%$28.8M traded · Polymarket · this hour
How it would workSmall build
What you’d do
Pick the winner of each pairing, round by round, down to the first dictatorship to fall. Every pairing shows the market odds, and your finished bracket becomes a picture to post.
The call it will carry
Which dictatorship falls first?
- The Islamic Republic
- Cuba
- Venezuela
- Russia
- China
Voting on this one opens shortly.
Trump Bingo
A bingo card of the words Trump is likely to say. Play it live on the show while he speaks.
The markets behind it
- What does Trump say at his Dubuque, Iowa rally?94% Save America Act86% America Firstabout $232K traded · Kalshi · this hour
- What does Trump say in October?92% Autismabout $241K traded · Kalshi · this hour
How it would workSmall build
What you’d do
Get a card built from the live “what will Trump say” markets and tap each square when he says it, during a speech or a rally the show covers live. The first full line wins, in the live chat.
The call it will carry
What does Trump bring up first in his next speech?
- The Islamic Republic
- China
- Fake news
- Biden
Voting on this one opens shortly.
Ceasefire Countdown
Five ceasefires are holding today. Guess which one breaks first, and when.
The markets behind it
- Does the ceasefire between Israel and the regime hold through October 30?100% October 30$41.4M traded · Polymarket · this hour
- Does the ceasefire between the US and the regime hold through October 31?97% October 31$31.5M traded · Polymarket · this hour
How it would workSmall build
What you’d do
Rank the ceasefires (the US and the Islamic Republic, Israel and the Islamic Republic, the US and the Houthis, Israel and Hamas, Russia and Ukraine) from most to least fragile. A counter ticks the days each has held, beside the market odds it still holds next month.
The call it will carry
Which ceasefire breaks first?
- The US and the Islamic Republic
- Israel and the Islamic Republic
- Israel and Hamas
- The US and the Houthis
Voting on this one opens shortly.
The Impeachment Meter
If the Democrats take the House, is Trump impeached? Set the meter, then see what the bettors think.
The markets behind it
- Is Trump impeached by December 31, 2027?66% December 31, 2027$1.1M traded · Polymarket · this hour
- Is Trump impeached before 2028?64% Before Jan 1, 2028about $985K traded · Kalshi · this hour
How it would workSmall build
What you’d do
Pick the House result first, then set your odds for each step: impeached, a Senate trial, removed. The market’s chain sits beside yours.
The call it will carry
If the Democrats win the House, should they impeach Trump?
- Yes
- No
- Only if there is new evidence
Voting on this one opens shortly.
Who Joins the Abraham Accords Next?
Color the map: which countries make peace with Israel next, and should a free Iran be one of them?
The markets behind it
- Which country joins the Abraham Accords before 2027?17% Somaliland8% Jordan$1.8M traded · Polymarket · this hour
- Israel and Syria make peace by December 31, 2026?4.7% December 31, 2026$2.2M traded · Polymarket · this hour
How it would workMedium build
What you’d do
Tap countries on a map of the Middle East to mark who makes peace with Israel, and in what order. Then answer the question no market asks, about a free Iran, beside the market odds for Saudi Arabia and Syria.
The call it will carry
Should a free Iran join the Abraham Accords?
- Yes, on day one
- Yes, after a referendum
- No
Voting on this one opens shortly.
War to Wallet
Follow one chain from the strait to your mortgage: oil, prices, the Fed.
The markets behind it
- What does the Fed decide in December?70% 25 bps increase28% No change$10M traded · Polymarket · this hour
- Oil at an all-time high by March 31, 2027?29% March 31, 2027$5.2M traded · Polymarket · this hour
How it would workMedium build
What you’d do
Set the price of oil, then watch the chain move: prices, the Fed’s December decision, a recession. Your chain sits beside the markets’, which today price a rate rise, not a cut.
The call it will carry
What does the Fed do in December?
- Raise rates
- Hold
- Cut
Voting on this one opens shortly.
Who’s Out Next in Trump’s Team?
Line up Trump’s officials in the order you think they leave.
The markets behind it
- Who leaves the Trump administration in 2026?66% Ric Grenell44% Susie Wilesabout $1.1M traded · Kalshi · this hour
- Who leaves Trump’s Cabinet next?38% Pete Hegsethabout $53K traded · Kalshi · this hour
How it would workSmall build
What you’d do
Drag the faces (Grenell, Wiles, Waltz, Hegseth, Lutnick and more) into the order you expect them to go. Every real departure scores you against the market.
The call it will carry
Who leaves Trump’s team first?
- Pete Hegseth
- Susie Wiles
- Ric Grenell
- Mike Waltz
- Howard Lutnick
Voting on this one opens shortly.
Odds and money traded as read on 31 October 2026. Where the site tracks a market every hour, its odds are this hour’s.
Suggest a tool
Name it and say what it would do. Everyone can vote on it as soon as it’s up.