If China moves on Taiwan
Replay the drills that circled Taiwan on a 3D map, then simulate the real thing: a quarantine, a blockade or an invasion. Decide what the United States, Japan and the Philippines do.
How this works
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The past wars on this board, and their sources
- Third Taiwan Strait Crisis 1995-07-21 to 1996-03-25
After Taiwan's president Lee Teng-hui spoke at Cornell, China fired missiles into the seas north of Taiwan in 1995 and off its two main ports before Taiwan's first direct presidential vote in 1996. The US sent two carrier groups.
- August 2022 drills after the Pelosi visit 2022-08-04 to 2022-08-10
After US Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, China closed six then seven zones ringing Taiwan and fired ballistic missiles, some over the island. It was the first time Chinese missiles landed in Japan's economic zone.
- Joint Sword (April 2023) 2023-04-08 to 2023-04-10
After President Tsai Ing-wen met US Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California, the PLA ran three days of combat readiness patrols around Taiwan with the carrier Shandong to the east.
- Joint Sword-2024A (May 2024) 2024-05-23 to 2024-05-24
Three days after Lai Ching-te's inauguration, the PLA drilled around Taiwan and the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, with the coast guard joining in.
- Joint Sword-2024B (October 2024) 2024-10-14 to 2024-10-14
After Lai's National Day speech, the PLA held one day of drills in the strait and six areas around Taiwan, practising port blockades, with four coast guard flotillas.
- Unnamed winter drill (December 2024) 2024-12-09 to 2024-12-12
Without a name or an announcement, China sent about 90 naval and coast guard ships across the first island chain, the largest maritime deployment to that date.
- Strait Thunder-2025A (April 2025) 2025-04-01 to 2025-04-02
After Lai called China a foreign hostile force, the PLA drilled around Taiwan, named the second day Strait Thunder-2025A, and simulated strikes on ports and energy sites.
- Justice Mission-2025 (December 2025) 2025-12-29 to 2025-12-30
After a US arms sale, the PLA drilled a blockade of Keelung and Kaohsiung with live rocket fire, the first drill with a stated aim of deterring outside forces.
- 2026: pressure without a named drill 2026-01-08 to 2026-10-31
No named encirclement drill has been held in 2026. Air sorties fell to roughly half of 2025 while warships stayed and coast guard and maritime agency ships moved east of Taiwan.
The experts who brief you, and what they published
- CSIS team (Cancian, Cancian, Heginbotham) Washington think tank; The First Battle of the Next War, Jan 2023
In most of 24 runs an invasion in 2026 failed, but the US, Japan and Taiwan paid with dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and two carriers. Source
- Bonny Lin Director, China Power Project, CSIS; former RAND and Pentagon China director
China can already quarantine or blockade Taiwan; an invasion is the hardest option, and a coast guard quarantine is the one the US is least ready to answer. Source
- Adm. Philip Davidson (ret.) Former commander, US Indo-Pacific Command
The threat of China moving on Taiwan becomes real within this decade, in fact by about 2027. Source
- Adm. Samuel Paparo Commander, US Indo-Pacific Command
PLA moves around Taiwan are rehearsals; the US would prevail, but the question is how much it would lose. Source
- Elbridge Colby US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
China is the main threat; the US must shift forces to Asia and build a denial defense of Taiwan, with allies like Japan doing much more. Source
- Oriana Skylar Mastro Center Fellow, Stanford FSI; AEI nonresident fellow
Xi will use force once he believes the PLA can take Taiwan before the US can step in, and 2027 is the likely flashpoint. Source
- Ian Easton Associate Professor, China Maritime Studies Institute, US Naval War College; author of The Chinese Invasion Threat
Invading Taiwan is the PLA's biggest and hardest war plan: few beaches, dug-in defenders and only two good weather months a year. Source
- Lyle Goldstein (Defense Priorities) Director, Asia Program, Defense Priorities; Watson Institute, Brown University
A US war with China over Taiwan would be costlier and less winnable than most planners think, and a Chinese Taiwan would not be a springboard for wider conquest. Source
- Bloomberg Economics Economic research arm of Bloomberg
A war over Taiwan would cost about $10.6 trillion in its first year, close to 10% of world GDP; even a blockade would cut world output 5.3%. Source
- Sanae Takaichi Prime Minister of Japan
A Chinese use of force against Taiwan with warships could be a survival threatening situation that lets Japan fight. Source
- US intelligence community (ODNI Annual Threat Assessment 2026) Office of the Director of National Intelligence
China's leaders do not plan to invade in 2027 and have no fixed timeline; they prefer unification without force while the PLA keeps building. Source
- Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Taiwan's defense ministry; 2026 China Military Power Report and daily PLA reports
The PLA is sharpening plans to blockade or quarantine Taiwan, joined to firepower strikes and amphibious landings. Source
- INDSR (Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research) Taiwan government funded defense think tank
Focusing on 2027 confuses what the PLA can do with what Xi intends; an invasion soon is unlikely. Source
- Chatham House London think tank
A Taiwan crisis would hurt Europe and the world economy far more than the Hormuz closure, and Beijing is already trialling a blockade in its drills. Source
Everything on the board comes from published reporting and analysis, each with its page. The experts' numbers are my reading of what each one published, not their words. This is a model to think with, not a forecast. Something wrong? Say it in the discussion below and I check it. Satellite imagery: NASA. Elevation: AWS Terrain Tiles.
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If China moves on Taiwan
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